000
WTNT64 KNHC 221646
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO NEAR THE TOWN
OF TECOLUTLA...JUST EAST OF GUTIERREZ ZAMORA AND ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN AT ABOUT 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC.  THE
ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF DEAN AT LANDFALL WAS 100 MPH...160
KPH....CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. 

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN





000
WTNT34 KNHC 221439
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1000 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...LANDFALL EXPECTED WITHIN A
FEW HOURS...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF COATZACOALCOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ. PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA CRUZ TO BAHIA ALGODONES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...
155 KM...NORTH OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL.  ON THIS
TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 100
MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.  ABOUT FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN
VERACRUZ DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...20.6 N...96.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

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